Frankly, I didn’t expect an assassination attempt on former president Donald Trump. But with how polarizing the political climate has clearly been since ~2020, it isn’t that stupefying; from the chaotic pandemic conflicts over ‘government overreach’ and masks to the storming of the Capitol, Republicans and Democrats appear to be generally much less open to compromise. Could this make Trump triumph in the election with ’84 Reagan numbers?

Additionally, there’s been a moderate divide in the Democratic Party ever since the catastrophe that was the debate on June 27th. Biden’s gaffes were far too easy to attack – even if his points could be half-decent, some of his words were entirely and utterly unintelligible. Now, there are talks from inside and outside the party concerning Biden stepping down – and likely Vice President Harris taking his place on the top of the ticket. Oh, and it seems that he tested positive for COVID-19 a couple of days ago. What will be the consensus of the party?

Lastly, is it controversial to say J.D. Vance is a poor vice-president pick? I won’t call myself an expert on Vance, his life, and his beliefs, but picking him is unlikely to help (or hurt) Trump nationally. I don’t know what’s going on in the Republican Party anymore.

Assassination Attempt, and The Topic of ‘Political Violence’

Trump blowing a kiss to Hulk Hogan at the Republican National Convention, night four. He’s a silly guy!

Reactions to ‘political violence’ recently have been mixed. In the Republican Party, calls to ‘hang’ Mike Pence – that especially became louder during and after January 6th – go unaddressed and undenounced. Political violence never seemed to be a concern when it came to sending bomb threats to hospitals that are/were a minuscule amount supportive of transgender individuals (I am referring to Libs of Tiktok, read more here). Jokes about the 2022 attack on Paul Pelosi (and the attempted attack on Nancy Pelosi) were somewhat standard practice, along with bizarre claims of homosexual prostitution having a role in the incident; notably, this misinformation was disseminated by individuals such as Elon Musk, Marjorie Taylor Greene (GA-14), and Donald Trump Jr. But harmless jokes about the attack being told by liberals somehow are inciting violence? This is not meant to be an endorsement of making fun of the assassination attempt, nor is it meant to be a supportive of the notable liberals, such as streamer Destiny, making light of the attempt neither. Simply, I wish that calls for (or making light of) violence were treated the same, regardless of the party affiliation of the one saying it. But, it is unlikely my wish will come true in due time.

Is this incident enough to wildly swing the election in favor of the GOP? I don’t necessarily think so. Trump is already not an extremely popular candidate, and his win in 2016 was nothing in comparison to Reagan’s tremendous landslide in ’80. Additionally, the Trump running today is different from the Trump 8 years ago – the idea of a charismatic outsider making it this far was charming, if not exceptionally appealing to many Republican and “centrist” Americans. After a disaster presidency, though, the allure has faded, and the charisma has become stale. Regardless of the result this November, it shouldn’t be contentious to say that this election is plainly bad. Both candidates have campaigns ranging from lackluster to dreadful, and the prospect of having either for a second term is far from moving.

The End of a Biden-Harris Ticket

Jack Gruber/USA Today

Age seemed to begin to be a concern in late 2021, but ever since Biden has made more gaffes in the public eye, many feel repelled by how ‘senile’ he has seemed. Any hopes of the Democratic Party covering up his questionable cognitive state were entirely blown up with the first (?) presidential debate roughly a month ago, as I mentioned earlier.

Gerald Herbert/AP

For example, Dana Bash, a CNN moderator, asked both Trump and Biden,

As president, would you block abortion medication?”

Excerpt from Trump's Response:

…Now the states are working it out. If you look at Ohio, it was a decision that was – that was an end result that was a little bit more liberal than you would have thought. Kansas I would say the same thing. Texas is different. Florida is different. But they’re all making their own decisions right now. And right now, the states control it. That’s the vote of the people.

Like Ronald Reagan, I believe in the exceptions. I am a person that believes. And frankly, I think it’s important to believe in the exceptions. Some people – you have to follow your heart. Some people don’t believe in that. But I believe in the exceptions for rape, incest and the life of the mother. I think it’s very important. Some people don’t. Follow your heart.

Excerpt from Biden's Response:

We’re in a state where in six weeks you don’t even know whether you’re pregnant or not, but you cannot see a doctor, have your – and have him decide on what your circumstances are, whether you need help.

The idea that states are able to do this is a little like saying, we’re going to turn civil rights back to the states, let each state have a different rule.

Look, there’s so many young women who have been – including a young woman who just was murdered and he went to the funeral. The idea that she was murdered by – by – by an immigrant coming in and (inaudible) talk about that.

But here’s the deal, there’s a lot of young women who are being raped by their – by their in-laws, by their – by their spouses, brothers and sisters, by – just – it’s just – it’s just ridiculous. And they can do nothing about it. And they try to arrest them when they cross state lines.

Is it wrong to believe that Biden’s response was, at best, off-topic and, at worst, gobbledygook? Though I do not necessarily ‘agree’ with Trump’s view on abortion in a post-Dobbs v. Jackson climate, I can understand what he is saying, despite his repetitive rambling (see second paragraph of excerpt). But Biden’s response? The only essence it evokes is confusion.

What he is saying about abortion laws in Georgia is true, and with a bit better delivery, it is a nice opener to a Democratic attack on the basis of the Dobbs decision. In the next sentences, though, he calls abortion a civil right (?) and then makes the most non sequitur comment by mentioning the murder of a young woman by an immigrant. What was the point of bringing this up at all?

Then, in what seems like a last-ditch attempt to get back on topic, Biden makes an incredibly weak and discombobulated ‘argument’ (it hurts to call it that) about incest in relation to abortion, especially when women can be prosecuted for traveling over state lines to receive and/or seek one. I feel that this could be a compelling argument with some more tweaks on delivery and more specificity – except for the fact that Donald Trump already mentioned in his response that he believes in exceptions for rape AND incest.

It wasn’t a vague suggestion – Trump said, “But I believe in the exceptions for rape, incest, and the life of the mother.” There is no way to misinterpret this into meaning something else. Will that statement be reflected in Trump’s future policies? I’m not sure. But that could’ve been an easy attack for Biden – questioning the integrity of his opponent. However, none of that happened; Democrats blundered on attacking Republicans on the issue they have the most leverage on. Later on in the debate, he says,

“And if I’m elected, I’m going to restore Roe v. Wade.”

This would be very, very compelling… if he wasn’t already the incumbent.

I have a strong feeling that the Republicans have secured this election, at least on the executive level.

It’s not that the Democrats are unpopular – it’s that Joe Biden is unpopular.

Harris 2024?

Erik Verduzco / Las Vegas Review-Journal

My mother used to—she would give us a hard time sometimes, and she would say to us, ‘I don’t know what’s wrong with you young people. You think you just fell out of a coconut tree?’ [laughs] You exist in the context of all in which you live and what came before you.

We are legitimately in a timeline where I believe Kamala can be, at least, a half-decent Democratic candidate for the President of the United States. Would I prefer someone else? Of course – I used to be a fan of Bernie Sanders’ campaigns for the Democratic nomination in 2016 and 2020. But, frankly, he would be a poor candidate to run, especially in an election where age is such a major issue (Sanders is 82 years old). Additionally, I’m not very well versed on Gretchen Whitmer, but she seems like a monstrously better candidate from what I’ve heard. Let us be honest, though – Harris seems to be an ideal, easy choice for the time being. Will she get the Democrats a landslide? Absolutely not. But I do think she has the potential for a close victory in November. Frankly, she is a step ahead of Hillary Clinton, and I am firmly opposed to her “retrying” the 2016 election this year. It is very obvious that it will not go well. I do not think it is absurd to suggest Harris – or even Michelle Obama, as a slight wildcard – as the Democratic nominee. She has much more energy to do public appearances, as she does not require as much sleep as Biden due to her being 22 years younger (and I believe much healthier?) than him. This younger status also can make her a bit more ‘relatable’ with younger voters, arguably. She is also a bit charismatic; I don’t think she can out-charm Trump, but she’ll do a much better job than Biden, and even past candidates like Ron DeSantis. Lastly, she has a good amount of experience that can especially be framed against Trump – her past positions as a District Attorney and an Attorney General contrast positively with Trump’s status as a felon. But, frankly, I don’t have much hope for the Democrats making a smart decision in this situation; it is usually very hard to agree with their approaches to policy, especially with a constant “they go low, we go high” mindset (that basically means “they go low, we do nothing, they go lower”). I don’t really know what to feel.

RUSH UPDATE – 7/21/24

I expected this, but I also didn’t expect it. He dropped out an hour from when I am currently writing this and endorsed Kamala Harris 30 minutes later. Is this the doing of Nancy Pelosi?

A part of me feels that the constant joking about this on Twitter has manifested this event into existence; I mean, a “well-known Democratic operative” reportedly said, “F**k it, I’m coconut pilled.”

Regarding Vice President picks, I’m unsure what approach the party will take ballot-wise. For a full female ticket:

This was a rushed addition; I’ll have to keep following this story and update with another write-up in the coming days.

J.D. Vance, VP

It feels bad to end this off on such a boring and brief note. I do not think J.D. Vance is much of a riveting candidate for Vice President – at least, not riveting enough to wait so long to announce him. I thought this wait would mean unexpectedly picking a VP to boost votes by a fair margin: a McCain-style Nikki Haley pick to try and swoon over Never-Trump Republicans, or even a spontaneous Marco Rubio pick to secure (?) Florida and some Hispanic voters. But Vance doesn’t really do much for the Republican ticket; trying to get voters from Ohio seems unnecessary since Trump has been leading the state with fairly strong numbers. Overall, this pick doesn’t seem like it’ll draw away or entice any voters – it is a strong no from me.

A Desperate Attempt at a Coherent Conclusion

This year has been so incredibly puzzling and historic for the United States. It's hard to not keep my eyes glued to the news, since it feels like every second there'll be a new headline to send me into a daze. I'm glad I've gained the motivation to get back into a writing mentalese as things have started to heat up; apologies for going months without a new write-up.

Further Reading

“READ: Biden-Trump Debate Transcript | CNN Politics.” CNN, 28 June 2024,www.cnn.com/2024/06/27/politics/read-biden-trump-debate-rush-transcript/index.html.

ettingermentum. “Is It Over?” Ettingermentum.news, 15 July 2024, www.ettingermentum.news/p/is-it-over.Accessed 21 July 2024.